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☆ Many Democrats Are Worried Trump Will Beat Biden. This One Isn’t.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Adam Nagourney | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Simon Rosenberg was right about the congressional elections of 2022. All the conventional wisdom — the polls, the punditry, the fretting by fellow Democrats — revolved around the expectation of a big red wave and a Democratic wipeout. Democrats would surprise everyone, he said again and again: There would be no red wave. This time, he is predicting that President Biden will defeat Donald J. Trump in November. He even has a Substack newsletter offering insights and daily reassurance to his worried readers — “Hopium Chronicles,” the name taken from what the pollster Nate Silver suggested he was ingesting back in 2022.

Persons: Simon Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg, Michael Dukakis, Biden, Donald J, Trump, David Plouffe, Barack Obama, — “, Nate Silver Organizations: Democratic

☆ A Big Night — but Will It Matter?
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Adam Nagourney | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

President Biden was not even halfway through his 68-minute State of the Union speech when Simon Rosenberg, the rare Democratic strategist who is bullish on Biden’s re-election prospects, fired off a note to the readers of his Substack newsletter. “The President is Kicking Ass!” it read (though with many more exclamation points attached). The Biden campaign soon reported that the three hours surrounding the prime-time speech were the most lucrative fund-raising hours of the president’s re-election campaign so far. The rousing speech was, at least for Democrats worried about Biden’s re-election prospects, a welcome success — and on a night when it mattered. Undecided voters can be targeted precisely in many ways, with TikTok the most au courant example.

Persons: Biden, Simon Rosenberg, Biden’s Organizations: Democratic, Biden’s, Democratic National Convention Locations: Chicago

☆ Opinion | ‘The Strongest Democratic Party That Any of Us Have Ever Seen’
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( The Ezra Klein Show | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

If you’re a Democrat, how worried should you be right now? On the one hand, polls suggest Democrats should be very worried. Biden has a strong record to run on, and Trump has a lot more baggage than he did in 2020. Simon Rosenberg is a longtime Democratic political strategist, the author of the newsletter Hopium Chronicles and one of the few people who correctly predicted the Democrats’ strong performance in 2022. He argues that the Democratic Party is in a better position now than it has been for generations.

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, staved, Trump, “, Ezra Klein, Simon Rosenberg, MAGA Organizations: Democrat, Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google, Democratic, ’, Democratic Party

☆ Opinion: Trump is a strong candidate. Democrats need to take him seriously.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Julian Zelizer | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —Democrats should not make the mistake of underestimating former President Donald Trump. Moreover, they note, Haley was able to win independent voters who theoretically would be more amenable to President Joe Biden than Trump in the fall. Moreover, the number of Republicans who keep saying they won’t vote for Trump under any circumstances, gives Democrats hope that on Election Day, many voters in the GOP won’t turn out. But these arguments downplay the threat Trump will pose to Biden in November by ignoring several fundamentals. Trump is succeeding even though the United States has never had a major presidential candidate saddled with so much legal baggage.

Persons: Julian Zelizer, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, —, Nikki Haley —, Trump, Haley, Joe Biden, Biden, That’s, — Trump, pollsters, Karl Marx, Lyndon Johnson, Arizona Sen, Barry Goldwater, Simon Rosenberg, Ezra Klein Organizations: CNN, Princeton University, The New York Times, America, Democratic, Trump, GOP, Republican, WWE, Republican Party, Biden, Arizona, New York Times Locations: New Hampshire, United States

☆ Clock ticking on Biden’s chances with progressives and young voters, key groups say
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Camila Dechalus | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington CNN —Young voters played a critical role in helping elect President Joe Biden to the White House. For instance, last year, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law, which includes key provisions to reduce carbon emissions. Biden will also have to make the case to young voters over what he’s accomplished in his foreign policy, Hall said. But some progressive groups say that if they do not see more things accomplished on these domestic issues, it could result in low voter turnout among young voters and voters of color. Simon Rosenberg, a veteran Democratic strategist, said there is currently a vast divide between the president and young voters.

Persons: Joe Biden, –, Biden, Hall, “ Young, they’re, ” Hall, Trump, Kevin Munoz, ”, MAGA, Harris, ” Munoz, Cliff Albright –, ” Biden, Albright, Trevon Bosley, ” Bosley, Simon Rosenberg, Rosenberg, It’s Organizations: Washington CNN — Young, Alliance for Youth, CNN, White House, White, GOP, Black, New York Times, Siena, Biden, Trump, Office, Democratic Party, Democratic Locations: Israel, United States, Paris, Gaza

☆ Trump’s Populist Pivot
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Susan Milligan | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +10 min

It's not surprising they're trying to bust out of the 2020 Trump coalition, because the 2020 Trump coalition is not sufficient for him to win. Several polls do show him somewhat improved among Black voters. A Quinnipiac University poll in September, for example, showed Trump with 25% support among Black voters. Abortion could be the most difficult pivot for Trump, since he is upsetting activists on both ends of the debate. There is no doubt in our minds who Donald Trump is and who Donald Trump would be if he were ever to return to the presidency."

Persons: There's, Donald Trump, Trump, Roe, ” Trump, Dobbs, Ron DeSantis, Joe Biden, Simon Rosenberg, Rosenberg, It's, Howard Schweber, Schweber, Biden, Shawn Fain, Mary Kay Henry, Henry, Debbie Dingell, Hillary Clinton's, Biden –, –, Clinton, Bill Clinton, didn't, – they're, they've, Trump's, Donald Trump Jr, Adrianne, Ryan Stitzlein, Stitzlein, ” Kristen Waggoner Organizations: GOP, Wade, NBC, Florida Gov, Trump, Democratic, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United Auto Workers, Big, Republican, Union, Service Employees International Union, UAW, Black, Quinnipiac University, Pew Research Center, New Journey PAC, Supreme, Alliance Defending Locations: America, Wisconsin, Detroit, Michigan, Scranton , Pennsylvania, Shropshire

☆ Even Trump’s indictments haven’t shattered the deadlock between the parties. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

The poll found voters divided exactly in half over whether they intended to vote for Democrats or Republicans in the next Congressional election. While surveys now usually show Biden leading Trump, the president’s margin rarely exceeds his four-point margin of victory from 2020. Instead, the pandemic quickly evolved into just another front in the preexisting culture war lines of division between the parties. Yet Biden, as noted above, still maintained his 2020 lead over Trump in these seats of four percentage points. Surveys have found widespread concern among voters that Biden is too old to effectively handle the presidency.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, Joe Biden, ”, Lynn Vavreck, Franklin Roosevelt, Tony Fabrizio, John Anzalone, Biden, Fabrizio, Bill McInturff, “, ” McInturff, McInturff, Vavreck, John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, ” Vavreck, Stormy Daniels, Anzalone, ” Anzalone, it’s Trump, Simon Rosenberg, ” Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: CNN, Republican, Democratic, UCLA, Electoral College, GOP, Senate, Trump, Biden, AARP, Republicans, NBC, Bright Line, NPR, PBS, Marist, White, Whites, Democrats, Wisconsin – Locations: Anzalone, Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Trump

☆ Biden's age is his 'superpower' in 2024, Jeffrey Katzenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Nandita Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Katzenberg, in a telephone interview, described Biden as "energetic" and "effective," and suggested Republican attacks on his age will backfire. "President Biden's age is, in fact, his superpower," Katzenberg said. Some Democrats expect such attacks on Biden's age and family will increase in 2024. Former Disney executive Katzenberg's opinion is likely to be reflected in Biden's campaign in the months to come. Biden's campaign had four members on the payroll and spent a total of $1.1 million in the first three months since launch.

Persons: Jeffrey Katzenberg, Joe Biden, Biden, Katzenberg, Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, Kamala Harris's, Biden's, Donald Trump, Simon Rosenberg, Barack Obama, Reid Hoffman, it's, Nandita Bose, Trevor Hunnicutt, Heather Timmons, Michael Perry Organizations: Republican, Republicans, Trump, Democratic, Disney, Katzenberg, Linkedin, Biden, Fund, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ It’s Been a Week. What Does It Tell Us About 2024?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Jonathan Weisman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

In an interview on Saturday, he said it was not meant to be a criticism. But it was “an appeal for a bolder platform that captures the imagination of working-class Americans and inspires them.”There’s no question that political predictions this far from an election are unreliable. Even Iowa voters tend not to tune in to the race until later in the year, noted David Kochel, a longtime Iowa Republican consultant. One Biden campaign adviser suggested that Mr. Trump had supplied a trove of material for attack ads. Mr. DeSantis’s super PAC, Never Back Down, called the 70-minute performance “over an hour of nonsense.”The crucial question for both parties in 2024 is how to retain the voters they have and regain those they have lost.

☆ Republicans struggle in the Southwest as Latino voters stick with Democrats
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-11 | by ( Natasha Korecki | Natasha Korecki Is A Senior National Political Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +10 min

It belies a conventional narrative that Democrats were universally ceding Latino voters to the Republican Party, a story line repeated throughout the run-up to the Nov. 8 midterms. Instead, indicators show the GOP in danger of losing Latino voters in this region, a prospect that could mean being boxed out of the Southwest for the long term. In New Mexico, the state with the most residents identifying as Hispanic or Latino in the country, Latino Democrats won nearly every statewide race. Even with some Latino voters staying home, NBC News exit polling showed that Cortez Masto won more than 60% of that vote. Still, there’s plenty of danger signs for Democrats when it comes to Latino voters, particularly among men.

☆ Fewer states than ever could pick the next president
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

Five states decided the last presidential race by flipping from Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Democratic and Republican presidential nominees have each carried 20 states in every election since at least 2008. Democrats did not demonstrate the capacity to threaten any of the GOP’s core 20 states, as Republicans did in Nevada. A race with just Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona as true battlegrounds would begin with Democrats favored in states holding 260 Electoral College votes (including Washington, DC) and Republicans in states with 235. After 2022, the list of genuinely competitive presidential states may be shrinking, but, if anything, that could increase the tension as the nation remains poised on the knife’s edge between two deeply entrenched, but increasingly antithetical, political coalitions.

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